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 Is the 12-day Israel-Iran war really over – and who gained what?


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Since Sunday, the Middle East has lurched from escalating war to fragile ceasefire. A truce seems to be holding, and what US President Donald Trump called “The 12 Day War” between Israel and Iran seems to be over – for now.


Meanwhile, Trump, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s leaders have all claimed that the pause in the conflict happened on their terms.

So, what’s the truth? What did Israel achieve? Did Iran manage to defend its strategic assets? And is the truce a pathway to peace?


How did events unfold?

Late on Saturday night, at Israel’s behest, the US entered the Israeli-Iranian war with strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, “completely obliterating” them, in Trump’s words.


On Monday, Iran struck back, firing missiles at the largest US airbase in the Middle East, Al Udeid in Qatar.


It appeared as though the Middle East was poised for a broader, longer war

But within hours, Trump announced on Truth Social, his social media platform, “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.”

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Trump called it “the 12 Day War … that could have gone on for years and destroyed the Middle East”.


Four hours after the ceasefire was supposed to take effect, Israel launched a strike against Iran in retaliation for what it said were two ballistic missiles entering its airspace, launched from Iran. Both were intercepted. Israel’s retaliation destroyed a radar station near Tehran.


Trump was furious. “I’m really unhappy that Israel went out this morning,” he told reporters.

“We’ve got two countries that have been fighting so hard and for so long, that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing.”


Iran said it did not fire those missiles. By 11:30 GMT the ceasefire was back in effect. Trump spoke to Netanyahu.


“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.


What did Israel achieve?

Israel has long claimed that Iran is its number one existential threat, but it has never before struck Tehran’s nuclear facilities.


On June 13, it crossed that red line, bombing the surface installations of the Natanz fuel enrichment plant and the Isfahan nuclear technological complex. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles at Israel.


Israel had struck nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq before, but it has now proved it can carry out a complex mission much further afield.

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It also withstood international accusations that its mission wasn’t legal. Israel claims it was anticipatory self-defence, but not everyone agrees that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, or that it planned to use it against Israel imminently.


“I speak with world leaders and they are very impressed by our determination and the achievements of our forces,” Netanyahu said on June 18.


Finally, Israel proved it can convince the US to enter a limited Middle Eastern offensive it has started. In previous wars in 1967 and 1973, the US had provided material support to Israel when it was attacked, but had not assisted it with direct operational involvement.


Netanyahu thanked Trump for “standing alongside us”.

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Operation Rising Lion against Iran took place in the wake of conflicts that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional allies – the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened over the past two years.

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